# 《毕出21套》解析：逻辑第2套

## 逻辑第 2 套

1.

In the United States, of the people who moved from one state to another when they retired, the percentage who retired to Florida has decreased by three percentage points over the past ten years.  Since many local businesses in Florida cater to retirees, this decline is likely to have a noticeably negative economic effect on these businesses.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

(A) Florida attracts more people who move from one state to another when they retire than does any other state.

(B) The number of people who move out of Florida to accept employment in other states has increased over the past ten years.

(C) There are far more local businesses in Florida that cater to tourists than there are local businesses that cater to retirees.

(D) The total number of people who retired and moved to another state for their retirement has increased significantly over the past ten years.

(E) The number of people who left Florida when they retired to live in another state was greater last year than it was ten years ago.

### 选项解析：

A. 比起其他州，Florida吸引了更多的退休人员：不管和别的州比，Florida能吸引更多还是更少的人，只要来到Florida的人和往年比变少了，就会影响企业。比别的州再好或者再坏都没有意义。

B. 工作调动而迁出Florida的人数在过去十年里有所上升：我们讨论的是迁入的退休人员带来的影响，与迁出的人无关。

C. 在Florida，吸引游客的商业机构比吸引退休人员商业机构多多了：我们讨论的是吸引退休人员的商业机构所受的影响，与其数量大于还是小于吸引游客的商业机构无关。

D. 正确。 过去十年内，在退休时从一个州移动到另外一个州人数上升了：若实际移动人数上升，那么就算是移动的百分比下降，实际人数依然是有可能上升的。本选项指出了百分比和实际数字之间的区别，因此，这一百分比的下降不一定会对这些企业带来不好的经济影响。

E. 在退休的时候离开Florida而去其它州的人数比10年前上升了：如果更多的Florida退休人员离开了，那么不好的经济影响或许会加剧，反而加强了结论。

2.

A study followed a group of teenagers who had never smoked and tracked whether they took up smoking and how their mental health changed.  After one year, the incidence of depression among those who had taken up smoking was four times as high as it was among those who had not.  Since nicotine in cigarettes changes brain chemistry, perhaps thereby affecting mood, it is likely that smoking contributes to depression in teenagers.

Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the argument?

(A) Participants who were depressed at the start of the study were no more likely to be smokers after one year than those who were not depressed.

(B) The study did not distinguish between participants who smoked only occasionally and those who were heavy smokers.

(C) Few, if any, of the participants in the study were friends or relatives of other participants.

(D) Some participants entered and emerged from a period of depression within the year of the study.

(E) The researchers did not track use of alcohol by the teenagers.

### 选项解析：

A. 正确。和在研究一开始没有抑郁的人相比，在研究一开始就抑郁的人不会更有可能成为吸烟者：鉴于本选项是否定句，我们进行取非——和在研究一开始没有抑郁的人相比，在研究一开始就抑郁的人更有可能成为吸烟者。此选项取非后告诉我们有可能是“抑郁 导致了 吸烟”，那原文中“吸烟 导致 抑郁”这个因果关系就不一定成立，起到了削弱作用。

B. 研究没有区分那些偶尔抽烟和重度抽烟的人：鉴于本选项是否定句，我们进行取非——研究区分了那些偶尔抽烟和重度抽烟的人。此选项讨论了抽烟者的分类，与“抽烟和抑郁有没有因果关系”无关。

C. 很少有研究的参与者是其它参与者的朋友或者亲属：鉴于本选项是否定句，我们进行取非——有些研究的参与者是其他参与者的亲朋好友。文章没有提，我们就不能无端脑补“基因、身边人潜移默化”等等之类的影响。

D. 在研究过程中，某些参与者会加入并且展示出一段时间的抑郁：此选项只说了抑郁，并没有讨论抽烟和抑郁之间的关系。

E. 研究人员没有跟踪青少年喝酒的情况：鉴于本选项是否定句，我们进行取非——研究人员跟踪了青少年喝酒的情况。我们讨论的是抽烟和抑郁，与酒精无关。

3.

In response to mounting public concern, an airplane manufacturer implemented a program with the well-publicized goal of reducing by half the total yearly amount of hazardous waste generated by its passenger-jet division.  When the program began in 1994, the division's hazardous waste output was 90 pounds per production worker; last year it was 40 pounds per production worker.  Clearly, therefore, charges that the manufacturer's program has not met its goal are false.

Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?

(A) The amount of nonhazardous waste generated each year by the passenger-jet division has not increased significantly since 1994.

(B) At least as many passenger jets were produced by the division last year as had been produced in 1994.

(C) Since 1994, other divisions in the company have achieved reductions in hazardous waste output that are at least equal to that achieved in the passenger-jet division.

(D) The average number of weekly hours per production worker in the passenger-jet division was not significantly greater last year than it was in 1994.

(E) The number of production workers assigned to the passenger-jet division was not significantly less in 1994 than it was last year.

### 选项解析：

A. 自1994年来，无害物质排放量没有显著增加：鉴于本选项是否定句，我们进行取非——自1994年来，无害物质排放量显著增加了。我们讨论的是有害物质排放情况，与无害物质情况无关。

B. 去年制造的飞机数量至少和1994年制造的飞机数量一样多：产量的比较与有害污染物排放量的变化无关。

C. 自1994年来，其它部门排污的减少量至少和客机制造部门的一样：部门间的对比与有害污染物排放量的变化无关。

D. 去年每个员工的平均工作时间没有明显长于1994年的每个员工平均工作时间：鉴于本选项是否定句，我们进行取非——去年每个员工的平均工作时间明显长于1994年的每个员工平均工作时间。工作时长与污染排放量的变化无关。

E. 正确。1994年在客机制造部门的员工数没有明显少于去年的员工数：鉴于本选项是否定句，我们进行取非——1994年在客机制造部门的员工数明显少于去年的员工数。总排放量=工人数×人均排放量。如果人均排放量减少（90 → 40），但工人数增加，那么总排放量不见得会降低，目标就不见得会达成。

4.

The country of Baurisia has, until now, been self-sufficient in both grain and meat.  However, with growing prosperity in Baurisia has come a steadily increasing per capita consumption of meat, and it takes several pounds of grain to produce one pound of meat.  Therefore, since per capita income in Baurisia is almost certain to rise further but increases in domestic grain production are highly unlikely, Baurisia is soon likely to become an importer of grain.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

(A) When people increase their consumption of meat, they also tend to increase their consumption of grain.

(B) The per capita consumption of meat in Baurisia is roughly the same across all income levels.

(C) Per capita consumption of meat has not increased substantially in recent years in those countries from which Baurisia is likely to import meat.

(D) It is more economical for Baurisians to import meat than grain.

(E) During Baurisia's years of growing prosperity, the country's population has remained relatively stable.

### 题干译文：

B国的谷物和肉类一直以来都是自给自足的。然而，随着国家繁荣昌盛，人均肉类消耗量在增加，并且产一磅的肉需要几磅的谷物。因此，由于人均收入增加而国内谷物产量无法增加，B国很快要成为谷物进口国了。

### 选项解析：

A. 当人们增加肉的消耗时，他们也会增加谷物的消耗：如果谷物消耗也会增加，B国更应该去进口谷物了，加强了结论。

B. 无论收入水平如何，大家对肉的消耗是一样的：只要总的消耗增加，按理说就需要进口，至于个体消耗多少，无所谓。

C. B国进口肉类的那些国家，人均肉类消耗量近几年没有增加：别国的肉类消耗情况与B国会不会进口谷物无关。

D. 正确。对于B国来说，进口肉类的性价比高于进口谷物的性价比：如果选项成立，B国何苦去进口谷物，直接进口肉类就好了，那么B国就不一定会成为谷物进口国。

E. B国繁荣昌盛的这几年，人口数量比较稳定：不管人口怎么变，人均肉类消耗量增加已成为事实，至于这个事实怎么来的，无所谓，与B国会不会成为谷物进口国无关。

5.

Many people suffer an allergic reaction to sulfites, including those that are commonly added to wine as preservatives.  However, since there are several winemakers producing wine to which no sulfites are added, those who would like to drink wine but are allergic to sulfites can drink these wines without risking an allergic reaction to sulfites.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

(A) Sulfites occur naturally in most wine.

(B) The sulfites that can produce an allergic reaction are also commonly found in beverages other than wine.

(C) Wines without added sulfites tend to be at least moderately expensive.

(D) Apart from sulfites, there are other substances commonly present in wine that can trigger allergic reactions.

(E) Wine without added sulfites sometimes becomes undrinkable even before the wine is sold to consumers.

### 选项解析：

A． 正确。硫化物自然存在于酒中：如果酒里面本身就有硫化物，那么即使制酒商不添加硫化物，过敏的人还是会面临硫化物过敏风险的。

B． 造成过敏反应的那些硫化物在别的饮料里也存在：我们讨论的是能不能喝酒，与别的饮料无关。

C． 不添加硫化物的酒会贵一些：与买酒的成本无关。

D． 除了硫化物，酒里还有别的会引起过敏的物质：结论限定的范围是“对硫化物过敏”，至于其他过敏源，已经超出了讨论范围。

E． 甚至在酒被出售之前，不添加硫化物的酒有时已经变得不能喝了：能不能喝与喝完后会不会有硫化物过敏无关。

6.

In a certain wildlife park, park rangers are able to track the movements of many rhinoceroses because those animals wear radio collars.  When, as often happens, a collar slips off, it is put back on.  Putting a collar on a rhinoceros involves immobilizing the animal by shooting it with a tranquilizer dart.  Female rhinoceroses that have been frequently recollared have significantly lower fertility rates than uncollared females.  Probably, therefore, some substance in the tranquilizer inhibits fertility.

Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?

(A) The dose of tranquilizer delivered by a tranquilizer dart is large enough to give the rangers putting collars on rhinoceroses a generous margin of safety.

(B) The fertility rate of uncollared female rhinoceroses in the park has been increasing in the past few decades.

(C) Any stress that female rhinoceroses may suffer as a result of being immobilized and handled has little or no negative effect on their fertility.

(D) The male rhinoceroses in the wildlife park do not lose their collars as often as the park’s female rhinoceroses do.

(E) The tranquilizer used in immobilizing rhinoceroses is the same as the tranquilizer used in working with other large mammals.

### 选项解析：

A. 麻醉剂量是足够大的，大到可以保证管理员在装犀牛的项圈时是安全的：剂量的大小以及安全性与生育率低的原因是什么无关。

B. 公园里没有装GPS的母犀牛的生育率在近几年上涨了：没装GPS的母犀牛的生育率上涨是不能帮助我们判断装GPS的母犀牛的生育率下降的原因是什么的。

C. 正确。由于被麻醉而带来的紧张情绪不会给犀牛的生育率带来不好的影响：鉴于本选项是否定句，我们进行取非——由于被麻醉而带来的紧张情绪会给犀牛的生育率带来不好的影响。此选项取非后给出了装GPS母犀牛生育率下降的另一个原因：紧张情绪。由此说明，并不是麻醉剂里的物质影响了生育率。选项取非后削弱了结论。

D. 野生动物园中的公犀牛GPS掉落的频率要远小于母犀牛GPS掉落的频率： 公犀牛的GPS掉落情况与麻醉剂有没有影响母犀牛的生育率无关。

E. 用来麻醉犀牛的麻醉剂和用来麻醉其他大型动物的麻醉剂相同：麻醉剂是否相同与影不影响生育无关。

7.

Lyme disease is caused by a bacterium transmitted to humans by deer ticks.  Generally, deer ticks pick up the bacterium while in the larval stage by feeding on infected white-footed mice.  However, certain other species on which the larvae feed do not harbor the bacterium.  If the population of these other species were increased, more of the larvae would be feeding on uninfected hosts, so the number of ticks acquiring the bacterium would likely decline.

Which of the following would it be most important to ascertain in evaluating the argument?

(A) Whether populations of the other species on which deer tick larvae feed are found only in areas also inhabited by white-footed mice

(B) Whether the size of the deer tick population is currently limited by the availability of animals for the tick's larval stage to feed on

(C) Whether the infected deer tick population could be controlled by increasing the number of animals that prey on white-footed mice

(D) Whether deer ticks that were not infected as larvae can become infected as adults by feeding on deer on which infected deer ticks have fed

(E) Whether the other species on which deer tick larvae feed harbor any other bacteria that ticks transmit to humans

### 题干译文：

Lyme这种疾病是由细菌造成的，这种细菌是通过deer ticks（不是鹿，是一种虱子哈……下文简称DT）感染给人类的。通常来说，DT是在小时候瞎吃白足鼠被感染的。但是，DT也会吃一些别的没有细菌的食物。如果无菌食物的数量增加的话，大部分DT幼崽将会吃到无菌食物，那么，染病DT的数量就会下降。

### 选项解析：

A. 是否无菌食物只能在白足鼠居住的地方找到：无菌食物和白足鼠是否住在一起，与无菌食物数量的增加能不能带来染病DT数量的下降没有关系。

B. 正确。是否DT数量的多少受到食物数量的限制：此选项给一个场景会好理解许多。

a) DT数量受食物数量的限制 = 食物多，DT的数量就多；食物少，DT就会饿死，可以想象成饥荒年代。在这种情况下，不管我们给DT多少食物，无论有菌无菌，它们都会统统吃掉，否则会饿死。那么，即使增加无菌食物的数量，染病DT的数量也不会下降。

b) 如果不受限制呢，可以想象成富足年代。DT的数量不受食物数量限制，那么只要我们给足够多的无菌食物去稀释，DT吃到有菌食物的概率就会下降，染病DT的数量就会因此下降。

C. 是否染病DT的数量可以通过增加白足鼠的天敌控制：我们讨论的是“增加无菌食物数量”这一方法的效果，此时引入别的方法是没有意义的。

D. 是否幼年时期未感染的DT会在成年时期感染：DT被感染的年龄与我们讨论的方法能不能带来想要的结果无关。

E. 是否DT的其他食物寄生着其他会通过虱子传给人类的细菌：与别的细菌无关。

8.

In Kravonia, the average salary for jobs requiring a college degree has always been higher than the average salary for jobs that do not require a degree.  Over the last few years, the number of Kravonians enrolled in college has been growing steadily.  Therefore, the number of Kravonians entering the job market who have at least the qualification of a college degree will eventually be significantly higher than it has been over the last few years.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

(A) Kravonians with more than one college degree earn little more, on average, than do Kravonians with only one college degree.

(B) The average number of years Kravonian college students remain enrolled before completing a degree has been increasing over the past several years.

(C) Despite the increase in the number of Kravonians attending college, the percentage of the population attending college is lower in Kravonia than in most other countries.

(D) In recent years, employers have been requiring college degrees for workers in jobs that were previously performed successfully by Kravonians who did not have college degrees.

(E) For many years, employers in Kravonia have had difficulty finding enough college graduates to fill the high-paying jobs that were available.

### 选项解析：

A． 有多个文凭的人比只有一个文凭的人多挣那么一丢丢：此选项与人数会不会增多无关。

B． 正确。和过去几年相比，K国的学生平均需要花更长的时间毕业：如果在校时间变长，那么尽管入学人数增加，每年毕业进入就业市场的人数不一定会比之前多，削弱了结论。

C． 尽管K国的大学入学学生变多，但是K国上大学的人数占总人口的比例仍然小于其他国家：和其他国家的比较是无意义的。

D． 在近些年，那些本来可以被不具有大学学位的员工做好的职位也开始需求大学学位了：雇主的招工要求与某一类就业人数究竟会不会增加无关。

E． 招聘者一直很难招到具有大学学位的人来加入可提供的高薪职位中：雇主的招工情况与某一类就业人数究竟会不会增加无关。

9.

We know very little about the Etruscans, whose civilization flourished in central Italy from the ninth to the second centuries BC, and much of what we do know comes from their art, for the Etruscan language is all but ciphers to us. Greek and Phoenician sources indicate that the Etruscans enjoyed trade and commerce with those societies, by which the Etruscans were doubtless influenced. Yet unlike women in those societies, women in Etruscan society participated in important social functions, as documented by several Etruscan artworks. Thus, the Etruscan women held unusual status and freedom for the time and region.

The argument above requires which of the following assumptions?

(A) The Etruscan artists who created the artworks in question did not intend them as depictions of fantasy scenarios.

(B) Some of the Etruscan artworks in question have been found in the remains of Greek and Phoenician cities.

(C) An Etruscan's ability to participate in an important social function was inversely related to the level of that person's status and freedom.

(D) Women’s place in Etruscan society would be clearer to us if we could understand the Etruscan language.

(E) Greek and Phoenician artworks depicting important functions sometimes show women participating.

### 选项解析：

A． 正确。创作艺术品的艺术家没有故意描绘一个美好的场景：鉴于本选项是否定句，我们进行取非——创作艺术品的艺术家故意描绘了一个美好的场景。如果艺术家在绘画过程中夸大了事实，那么实际上女性不一定会参与这些重要的社会活动，我们也就不能轻易认定“E的女性拥有不同寻常的社会地位和自由”。选项取非后起到了削弱作用。

B． 一些艺术品在G和P也发现了：艺术品在哪里发现与E的女性究竟有没有不同寻常的社会地位和自由无关。

C． E国人参与重要社会活动的能力与这个人的地位、自由是负相关的：如果参与重要社会活动意味着其社会地位低，那么结论就不成立了。本选项直接削弱了结论。

D． 如果我们能理解E国语言，那么E国女性地位会更清晰：地位是否清晰与E的女性究竟有没有不同寻常的社会地位和自由无关。

E． 描绘重要功能的G和P的艺术品有时展示出女性的参与：G和P国的情况与讨论无关。

10.

The Highway Traffic Safety Institute reports that the PZ 1000 has the fewest injuries per accident of any car in its class.  This shows that the PZ 1000 is one of the safest cars available today.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument in the advertisement?

(A) The Highway Traffic Safety Institute report listed many cars in other classes that had more injuries per accident than did the PZ 1000.

(B) In recent years many more PZ 1000s have been sold than have any other kind of car in its class.

(C) Cars in the class to which the PZ 1000 belongs are more likely to be involved in accidents than are other types of cars.

(D) The difference between the number of injuries per accident for the PZ 1000 and that for other cars in its class is quite pronounced.

(E) The Highway Traffic Safety Institute issues reports only once a year.

### 选项解析：

A． 报告列举了其他系列中人均受伤率高于PZ1000的车：如果有人均受伤率高于PZ1000的车，说明PZ1000相比之下还是安全的，加强了结论。
B． 最近几年，同系列的车中，PZ1000卖的最多：卖的多少与安全性无关。
C． 正确。PZ1000所在的系列比其他系列更容易卷入到事故中：如果PZ1000处于一个危险的系列，那么PZ1000在此危险系列中称老大是没有用的，是不能断言它是所有车中最安全的车。
D． 事故中的人数差（PZ1000和同系列的其他车）被公布过：有没有被公布和安不安全无关。
E． 报告是一年一次的：报告的频率与安不安全无关。